One of the few positive changes in the IMF report
One of the few positive changes in the IMF report are the United States, the forecast for economic growth which increased from 3.1 to 3.6 percent for 2015. The expectations for the US differ greatly from those of the euro area, where the IMF has raised its forecast for growth Spain. The Fund predicts GDP in the eurozone to grow by 1.2 percent this year and 1.4% next year.
Projections for emerging economies as a whole are also reduced, as the strong deterioration is expected in countries - oil exporters such as Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. IMF expects Russia's economy to contract by 3% in 2015 and 1 percent in 2016. Blanchard argues that the collapse of oil prices by over 50% since June due largely to the reluctance of OPEC to reduce production, it is unlikely that the oil cartel to retreat from that decision. "We expect the decline in prices is sustainable. We forecast a slight increase, but certainly it will be up to the levels of six months ago," he says.
IMF predicts a significant slowdown in economic growth in China - up to 6.8 and 6.3 percent in 2015 and 2016, last year China's GDP grew by 7.7%, which is already the lowest level since 1990. According to experts of the fund delay will cause only limited changes in the policy of Beijing as the authorities are concerned over the risks associated with excessive credit growth and investment.
"The slowdown in 2015 reflects our decision welcomed by the authorities to cater to some imbalances and to reorient the economy towards domestic consumption and away from the shadow banking and real estate sector," said Blanchard. IMF lowers forecasts for other developing countries like Brazil and India.